WHERE ARE WE?
Conclusion
Are we in the last days?
Of course we are in the last days. The entire New Testament has been written in the expectation of Christ’s return. In Acts 2, when the church had its modern beginning in Jerusalem, we read that people sold all their possessions and shared what they had, in anticipation of Jesus’ Second Coming. Since then there have been a lot of false alarms. Is this one of them? Perhaps.
All informed Bible readers know that the day and the hour of Christ’s coming again is unknown. That restriction means very little. I compare it to the birth of a child. There we know the approximate date, but not the ‘day or the hour.’ We know that after a 9 months period more or less, a new life will emerge but even when labour pains start the actual time of birth cannot be exactly established. That’s why we cannot say that on July 10 2014 at 8.22 p.m. we will see Christ’s glorious re-entry. The Bible is quite emphatic on this point: the Lord repeats it twice in Matthew 24 that not even the angels or the Son of Man himself know the exact date and time. That makes eminent sense to me because nobody can accurately pinpoint the tipping point. Still, the Lord tells us to keep watch, because there will be definite indications. That’s why Jesus used the example of the fig tree and how it, at a certain time, will change in appearance, signaling summer. So too we always have to look around us and see what sort of signs point to the expiry date of the world’s time clock, when the birth of the New Creation comes and eternity enters. Romans 8: 22 explicitly mentions labour pains: “the whole creation has been groaning as in the pains of child birth.” These pains, it seems to me, are now in its final phase.
There are definite signs.
There are major indicators.
One is Climate Change, the topic of a study commissioned by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The latest report written by hundreds of reliable scientists concluded that, unless the world acts now, Climate Change is irreversible, making our planet inhabitable. Climate Change also affects everything including the world’s waters. There are now 530 dead zones globally, and another 228 showing signs of stress. Toxic blooms are replacing the fish-depleted areas with disastrous effects on the remaining species. With much of the big fish and marine mammals having vanished, with birds and the mussels and sea cucumbers choking on plastic, the only persistent survivors are the jellyfish. Like rats and cockroaches jellyfish kill all the predators. Even when they die they rot and help create toxic bacteria.
Another sign, published just this past week involves the West Antarctica, where the immense ice sheet is in a permanent melting phase, causing sea-levels to rise so that many of the world’s coastal cities will eventually have to be abandoned. All this is happening much faster than predicted earlier. So far everything predicted on Climate Change has proceeded at an unprecedented accelerated pace. Welcome to a new worrying water world.
And on land?
Weather change will cause:
1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production;
2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts
3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess, while the world’s population is still rapidly expanding, all of which is causing considerable stress.
Already there is a lot of stress and unrest everywhere. Where do you think the sudden world-wide turmoil has its roots? Humans fight when they outstrip the carrying capacity of their natural environment. Every time there is a choice between starving and raiding, humans raid. From hunter/gatherers through agricultural tribes, chiefdoms, and early complex societies, 25% of a population’s adult males die when war breaks out….
As famine, disease, and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change, many countries’ needs will exceed their carrying capacity. This will create a sense of desperation, which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance. Imagine eastern European countries, struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food, water, and energy, eyeing Russia, whose population is already in decline, for access to its grain, minerals, and energy supply.
What is really at stake here is what J. H. Bavinck describes in his forthcoming book Between Beginning and End: a radical Kingdom vision. Here is a quote:
It is impossible to visualize the immense difference between the majestic, harmonious unity of creation as it emerged from God’s hand, and the frantic, demon?dominated planet in which we, the cursed humanity, dwell after the fall into sin. The Kingdom is in shatters. That is the profound tragedy confronting the life of the world. This goes far beyond the fact that we have torn up its cohesion: it actually means that God has surrendered his own creation to Satan and his followers, whose only purpose is to abuse it and destroy it. The Kingdom, after all, comprises all things, all plants, all animals, all people, all angels. The Kingdom includes the sea and the land, the mountains and the valleys, all that was and is and is to come; and all of it is incorporated in a great and mighty whole.
The dangers Bavinck outlined have been the result of human-induced actions, due to the burning of fossil fuels. The increase of carbon-dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is something new under the sun, by now all too well documented.
According to a Waterloo professor, Thomas Homer-Dixon, the future looks bleak. He writes: “what we have experienced (are) so far only the earliest stages, just the leading edge, of the planet’s environmental crisis. Far, far greater environmental challenges are still to come.”
Here are some statistics.
During the past century, our population has quadrupled, but our energy use has increased 20 times, on an average. In countries like the United States, Germany and the Netherlands, the production of goods and services today requires, for each person, over 80 metric tons of natural resources annually. We consumers don’t notice that producing food causes about 15 metric tons of soil erosion for each North American resident each year. Building roads and other infrastructure need the moving of a further 14 tons of rocks and soil for each person on this continent. If present trends continue, by 2050 the total quantity of energy, resources and waste moving through the world’s economy each year will have nearly tripled, and Planet Earth, the only one we have, will have to withstand nearly three times today’s dangerous annual impact.
Here’s another example of our energy extravagance. Harriet Friedman, a University of Toronto professor specializing in analysis of food systems, writes: “more than half the world’s agricultural land suffers moderate to extreme soil degradation. Climate change will certainly make yields unpredictable in the future, if not already.”
Our efforts to change the make-up of the earth is connected to “Primary Productivity,” a concept indicating the total amount of plant mass created by Earth in a given year, the sum of earth’s plant energy that makes our lives possible. It is in essence “the total budget of life.” All humans and all animals eat either plants or eat animals that eat plants and solar-powered photosynthesis is the only way to make this fuel. It is this very activity that is now in danger. When Adam and Eve lived in the Garden of Eden, Primary Productivity was at its peak: 100 percent.
In our age of rapid population growth this phenomenon has accelerated with earth-breaking speed. Consider the following, quoted from “The Ingenuity Gap” by Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon.
“We are moving so much rock and dirt, blocking and diverting so many rivers, converting so many forests to cropland, releasing such huge quantities of heavy metals and organic chemicals into air and water, and generating so much energy, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen compounds that we are perturbing the deepest dynamics of our global ecosystems. Between one-third and one-half of the planet’s land area has been fundamentally transformed by our actions: row-crop agriculture, cities, and industrial areas occupy 10 to 15 percent of Earth’s land surface; 6 to 8 percent has been converted to pasture; and an area the size of France is now submerged under artificial reservoirs. We have driven to extinction a quarter of all bird species. We have used more than half of all accessible fresh water. In regions of major human activity, large rivers carry three times as much sediment as they did in pre-human times, while small rivers carry as much as eight times the sediment. Along the world’s tropical and subtropical coastlines, our activities – especially the construction of cities, industries and aquaculture pens – have changed or destroyed 50 percent of mangrove ecosystems, which are vital to the health of coastal fisheries. And about two-thirds of the world’s marine fisheries are either overexploited, depleted, or at their limit of exploitation.”
It is now estimated that we use almost 50 percent of the Earth Primary Productivity, almost half of all there is. That percentage may explain why the current extinction rate is 1,000 times that which existed before human domination of the planet: we, the 7 billion plus, have simply stolen the food, the rich, a lot more than others.
It’s the Oil we use that now makes up the difference. Oil is Primary Productivity stored as hydrocarbons, a trust fund of sorts, built up over many thousands of years. However of that trust fund we not only have used the interest but the capital as well, to the point where we now must envision, “The End of Oil,” with drastic consequences for the human race. Fracking will only delay the End of Oil by a few years.
Consider the following. In 1960 expansion of the supply of unfarmed, arable lands came to an end. In spite of that, grain yields tripled. Ever since we ran out of land, food is oil. Every single calorie we eat is backed by about ten calories of oil. That figure does not include the fuel used in transporting the food from the factory to the store, or the fuel used by us driving to the store. Writes Dr. Harriet Friedman, “One kilogram of asparagus sent from Chile to New York takes 73 kg of fuel energy and contributes 4.7 kg of carbon dioxide to global warming…The food miles average of the supermarket items was more than 5,000 times greater than the same items in the farmer’s market.” Compare this to 1940 when the average farm produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil energy it used.
Basically this means that the End of Oil means also The End of Food. Not only poses Climate Change almost insurmountable problems, when combined with “The End of Oil,” potential catastrophes are so big that they remind me of the seven angels in Revelation 8.
Oil is a finite fuel
When wood ran out, some 400 years ago, coal came on line. When coal proved to be too polluting, oil and natural gas were available. Now, what do we do? Rely mainly on Natural gas of which the world still has plenty, but all in very remote locations, such as Siberia or Australia? It will take trillions of dollars to feed the North American market with adequate supply, assuming there is plenty of it left.
Once we pass the oil production peak, a return to a medieval style of existence looks a frightening possibility. It will mean a greatly reduced human population. Thanks to oil, in my lifetime, the world’s population tripled from 2 billion to more than 7 billion. As late as 1945 my maternal grandfather had no electricity on his small farm. He managed with one horse and one help. Then people were mentally and physically equipped in coping with little. These skills we have lost. Also much of the earth has been spoiled, unfit for intensive, organic, agriculture. The End of Oil may mean a reduction in the world’s population to perhaps 1 billion. Imagine the hardship.
Now we have a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure powered almost exclusively by fossil-fuels. Cars, trucks, roads, boats, docks, airplanes, airports, hospitals, schools, farms manufacturing plants, food processing centers, water treatment plants – all run on fossil fuels. All plastics, pesticides, and fertilizers are derived from that source as well.
The End of Oil means the End of growth, on which our economy depends. A world-wide recession may make oil too cheap: OPEC, Russia, the largest suppliers, need $100 plus per barrel. Oil too cheap may also spell the End of Oil.
What we have in abundance is debt: corporate debt, government debt, and consumer debt, all at record levels. In order to finance debt, we need economic growth. Economic growth requires a constantly increasing consumption of consumer goods – most of which are made from plastic, which comes from petroleum (oil) and are delivered by trucks, which consume diesel fuel (oil). Even a truly successful conservation program would require us to drastically cut our consumption of consumer goods, which would also stop economic growth. Conservation would cause indebted corporations, governments, and individuals to slide towards bankruptcy. No wonder the USA and Canada are against the Kyoto Agreement. Banks would call in outstanding debts, businesses would close, government services would cease, and people would lose their jobs. During the Dirty Thirties many people had relatives in the country, where food, at least, was plentiful. That option is gone. Even farmers don’t grow their own food anymore.
You don’t have to be a prophet to conclude that without an abundant supply of cheap energy, transportation systems will break down. Electrical grids will collapse. Unemployment levels will skyrocket. Consumer goods will only be available to the super-rich. Food and water will become desperately sought after commodities. Riots and urban uprisings will become common.
There is no doubt that we have followed the path of least resistance, assuming that current conditions will last forever.
The Tipping Point: a possible scenario
All this points to the last days. What will speed up the pace is the Primary Productivity percentage, with China and India leading the way. Cambodia, Mongolia, Indonesia, all are being stripped of trees to feed the building booms there, including Brazil to supply China with soya beans.
Primary Productivity now stands between 45 and 50, meaning that almost half of the world’s basic energy, vested in plants, trees, animals, has been used for the benefit of the human race, but in such a way that once it is used, it cannot be restored. Depleted oceans, soil degradation, disappeared species, cannot be re-created by human technology.
Revelation 11: 2 says that “they will trample on the holy city for 42 months.” That’s what’s happening right now. Revelation 13: 5 repeats that: “The beast was given a mouth to utter proud words and blasphemies and to exercise authority for 42 months.”
Satan, God’s great Adversary, is the beast whose aim has been from the beginning – starting in Eden – to destroy God’s beloved cosmos. (John 3: 16)
There is significance in the number of 42 months, which is 3.5 years, exactly half of that perfect number ‘7’. Matthew 24: 21-22 says that “For there will be great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until now – and never to be equaled again. If those days had not been cut short, no one would survive, but for the sake of the elect, those days will be shortened.”
Allow me a brief detour by means of a riddle, illustrating the nature of exponential growth. A lily pond contains a single leaf. Each day the number of leaves doubles – two leaves the second day, four the third, eight the four, and so on. “If the pond is full on the thirtieth day,” the question goes, “at what point is it half full?” Answer: “On the twenty-ninth day.”
Back to two things: the 3.5 year period and Primary Productivity.
It is my contention that we are quite close to the 3.5 year mark, judging by the number of Primary Productivity, which now stands somewhere between 45 and 50 percent. Due to the scramble for more oil to keep our economic system lubricated, so-called fracking, the Fukushima nuclear fiasco, and also the increasing pace of Global Warming, environmental destruction will greatly speed up, rapidly approaching the 50 percent mark, which is the half- way to total chaos, just as 3.5 years is halfway to 7, the number of fullness.
Where Are We?
I believe that the Lord will not return on Day 30, but Day 29, when, seemingly, the glass is still half full. That can happen anytime: like a thief in the night, as the Bible puts it. The human time clock is about to stop. We only have a few seconds left. Are we ready for time-less eternity, when the trumpet will sound and, all will be changed, in a flash, in the twinkling of the eye.
The words of Peter come to mind: “Since everything here today might well be gone tomorrow, do you see how essential it is to live a holy life? Daily expect the Day of God, eager for its arrival. The galaxies will burn up and the elements melt down that day – but we’ll hardly notice. We’ll be looking the other way, ready for the promised new heavens and the promised new earth, all landscaped with righteousness.” (The Message, 2 Peter 3.)
What constitutes a Holy Life? We all must answer that question. That it has something to do with “LIFE”. our daily doings, our activities in God’s creation, is beyond question. This makes me think of Matthew 5:48: “Be perfect.” The Greek word there is ‘teleios,’ which is best translated as ‘holistic,’ derived from ‘telos’, which suggests that we always have to live keeping the End – telos- in mind, our final destination, the New Earth.
Remember, the signs will be quite subtle, so vague that the Bible repeatedly states that The End will come ‘Like a Thief in the night!’
This is my last blog for some time. I will post new articles on www.hielema.ca/blog from time to time, but will not e-mail them anymore. So occasionally visit hielema.ca.
Watch for August 30, the release day of
Between the Beginning and the End: a radical Kingdom Vision.
Part of the description in the Eerdmans catalogue says: Bavinck challenges believers to live as Kingdom people…his eschatological vision is now more relevant than ever as climate change, resource depletion, financial turmoil, and other issues increasingly threaten our world.